📈 Sentiment -> Stock Reaction

Setup, event path, product cycles, incremental buyer/seller

In one of our previous writeups, Pitching and Analyzing Stocks Like a World-Class Analyst, we used AAPL as an example to show what a good pod shop pitch looks like. In this writeup, we will stick with AAPL and dive deeper into a few really important nuances:

• sentiment - we discussed what it is (watch at phoenixlearning.io) and how to gauge it (metrics below) for our pitch. But what we haven’t done yet is fully understand how it plays into your idea, which is arguably the most important part. It can often determine the magnitude of the stock movement in either direction depending on where the numbers land relative to consensus. This is critical as we probabilistically think about the upside/downside.

• setup and event-path/catalyst - how sentiment feeds into the setup and the importance of the event path (more on catalysts here).

• product cycles and a quick example of how pod-shop teams bet on AAPL based on an incremental buyer/seller framework.